5 biggest lessons from the August election

But with less than 11 weeks left, both parties are shifting their focus increasingly to the battle for the general election. as follows.

1) The Democratic Party is gaining momentum. The red wave that was brewing during much of the current election cycle seems to be retreatingIn special House elections this month, twice in New York and once in Minnesota, Democrats won Joe Biden’s vote share in these districts during the 2020 election. This suggests that 2022 could be a more neutral political environment compared to his 2018 and his 2010 wave elections.

The main reason for this shift appears to be the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision.Democrats are exercised vigorously Since then, abortion rights advocates have overwhelming victory About constitutional change in conservative Kansas earlier in the month.

A word of caution: General elections are very different from summer special elections and ballot measures. Democrats still face the ruling party’s past medium-term trends, Biden’s low approval ratings, and voters’ negative view of the economy. And the majority they are defending in the House and Senate is very narrow. But their overall fortunes are definitely better than they were a month ago.

2) The Democratic Senate candidate has emerged unscathed. In the Senate’s two most important open Democratic primaries this month, the winners were able to largely avoid intra-party controversy. In Wisconsin, Lt. Gov. mandela burnsThe main opponents dropped out in the final stages of the race, and in Florida they were congressmen. Val DemingsThe path to the nomination was clear until the end.

It set the party’s trend as many of the final nominees in this year’s key Senate elections (North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania) passed the primaries and gained a solid footing into the fall. continue. And that’s in contrast to the Republican Senate primaries that opened up on the battlefield map this year, many of which resulted in protracted battles.

3) The Republican Party is still Donald Trump’s party. The reason many Republican Senate (and gubernatorial) primaries have been drawn out, and sometimes troubling, is that candidates were battling each other for the support of one man. Trump has had overall success with his nomination, with his favorite candidates winning primaries in key election campaigns in battleground states such as Michigan and Wisconsin (more on that below). ).

But perhaps more importantly for the former president, he also helped oust three House Republicans who voted to impeach him in the aftermath of the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. is. manager. Liz Cheney wyoming, Jaime Herrera Beitler Washington state and peter meyer All of Michigan’s governors failed to advance to the general election after facing Trump-backed challengers. While dealing with the aftermath of the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago manhunt, Trump further increased his influence on his party.

4) Trump’s election fraud is marching on. One consequence of the Trump-backed candidate emerging from the primary is that Republicans who accept his unsubstantiated claims of election fraud one step closer To have a strong office.

Arizona is the most notable example this month, with Trump-backed election naysayers winning the Senate, Governor, Secretary of State and Attorney General in the Republican primaries. Republican gubernatorial candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin have also questioned Biden’s legitimacy of his 2020 election victory. They will join many candidates who questioned the last election on this fall’s ballot. governor When secretary of statethe position to oversee the 2024 presidential election.

5) Congress is changing. Of course, the composition of Congress changes significantly every two years. But even before control of the House and Senate is decided, there are some symbolic changes that are more or less set in stone.

it’s just 2 out of 10 Republican lawmakers who support impeachment will return to the House next year, ensuring that the convention will be even more pro-Trump.Democrats lose committee chair and longtime member after Rep. Carolyn Maloney defeated at the incumbent-versus-incumbent primary election in New York on Tuesday.

The August primaries also paved the way for some notable firsts. After winning the Democratic primary in Florida’s blue-green 10th District, Maxwell Frost could be the next candidate. First member of Generation Z elected to parliament.And Democrat Becca Balint is on track First Woman to Represent Vermont in parliament following her first victory.

Source: www.cnn.com

5 biggest lessons from the August election

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