Things to watch out for in the sprint to the midterm elections

alone Two months before voters decide which party will control the House and Senate, there is good news for Democrats on multiple fronts.

Plus, there’s a new CNN report that Republicans in Washington are worried about fundraising, infighting about strategy and worrying about the candidate who won the hotly contested primary.

For now, the bottom line for 2022 is that history and math are very complicated for Democrats. Republicans can do almost everything wrong and walk away with a House majority, and possibly a Senate majority.

Here is the proof.

Democrats are optimistic

Ending federally guaranteed abortion rights for American women could mobilize voters.

Democrats can point to some key victories in Congress, including a bipartisan infrastructure law This shows that they can work across party lines, and the climate change package A down payment to keep the country away from oil.

targeted Student loan forgiveness plan. What President Joe Biden has revealed is that many Americans who feel crushed by college debt.
Democrats Codify Abortion Rights, same-sex marriage rights Neither may have the support to beat the Republican filibuster in the Senate, but to the law.
of FBI Search for Mar-a-Lago The ensuing legal battle between former President Donald Trump and the Justice Department was a distraction and a reminder of the turmoil of the Trump era.

plus, The Republican Don has been frustrated with Republican candidates in several major Senate elections.

But the bad news continues for Democrats

Primarily, inflation continues to make Americans’ cost of living much higher, and there is little Biden or the Democratic majority in the House and Senate can do about it.

Gas prices, a key barometer, have fallen but remain About $1.50 more expensive per gallon than when Biden took office.
Furthermore, due to the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation measures (increase in interest rates), high unemploymenteconomists sighing does not necessarily make ordinary people feel better about the economy relief.

Cancellation of student loan debt has caused several frustration about Moral hazard even some doctors and lawyers debt forgiven.It’s also already sparking outrage among people I paid off my debts, got a job instead of college.

A flood of immigrants at the border could also spur Republican voters’ enthusiasm as criticism of the Biden administration mounts.

History is stacked against the Democrats

As I said before, it is extremely rare for a president’s party to win in midterm elections.

here is what i wrote What Matters Edition From late August on how the abortion issue has empowered Democrats:
Since World War II, the political party of the president has been often lost seatsin all but two midterm elections, in 1998 after Bill Clinton was impeached and in 2002 toward the war in Iraq.

If 2022 is to be added to that list, the irrelevant circumstance would have to be the Supreme Court’s decision to overrule abortion rights guaranteed in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Agency decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Hmm.

The math is hard for Democrats

Democrats don’t have to lose much to lose control of the House and Senate this year.

Republicans must win a total of five seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives.

website Inside the Election by Nathan L. Gonzalez It tracks the House and Senate races and believes there are currently 169 solid Democratic seats. 188 in the House compared to staunch Republicans seat.

Of the “available seats,” Democrats hold 54 seats, Republicans 21, and three uncontrolled seats are being contested due to redistricting. So the Democrats are basically defending themselves in the House.

New “Commitment to America”. It’s like, “A deal with America?”

Republicans are belatedly working to give voters something to vote for instead of simply presenting an alternative to the Democrats.

With the “Deal with America” ​​riff that helped the Republicans Taking control of the House after the 1994 election, House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy will announce his “Commitment to America” ​​on Sept. 19 in Pittsburgh. According to Axios.

The platform will focus on reducing government spending, protecting borders, protecting free speech and more Hold government accountable. The final point is the apparent impetus to use a Congressional majority, if Congress wins, to probe the Biden administration and promote “safe and fair elections.”

Republicans should win only one Senate seat

In the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of just one seat, but even that can be a tall order as there are only a handful of seats that are truly competitive.

CNN’s Simone Pathe publishes her semi-regular must-read articles. “The 10 seats in the Senate are most likely to be flipped in 2022.”

The competitive field is evenly divided.Putty is Her list includes five Republicans and five Democrats.

The top of her list of seats that could be flipped is getting more and more irritating in Pennsylvania’s Senate election… In an interview with Politico on Wednesday, Fetterman promised to discuss Oz, but He declined to give details.

funding gap

Another major concern for Republicans is the growing Democratic funding lead. Money helps candidates (and their supporters) get their messages on TV screens and voters’ mailboxes, and can be a barometer of the excitement they generate.

Democrats are beating Republican candidates who should be doing better with fundraising, as pointed out in eye-popping graphics on CNN’s “Inside Politics.”

Ohio, in particular, has trended more Republican-leaning at the state and presidential levels in recent years, but when Democratic Rep. Democratic Senator. JD Vance’s $3.5 million is a good rule of thumb.

Arizona, Democrat Senator Mark Kelly Raised $54 Million Compared To Republican Candidates $5 million for Break Masters!Democrats in Georgia Senator Rafael Warnock brought in $85 million, compared to Republican candidate Herschel Walker’s $20 million.

Note: As CNN’s Nia-Malika Henderson pointed out, two things tie many of these Republican candidates together:

  1. They are the first candidates Trump has endorsed.
  2. They are vying for top offices against experienced politicians.

My question: Does that mean Insider is in this year? Can’t wait to find out in November.

What to do with a highly publicized Republican infighting

CNN’s Manu Raju and Alex Rogers are among Washington’s Republican bigwigs complaining that the no-interference approach led to poverty by Florida Senator Rick Scott, chairman of the Republican National Senate Committee. Reported confusion between “Candidate quality” — to borrow Senator Mitch McConnell’s phrase — and funding issues. read more.

CNN’s Chris Cillizza points out that Scott and McConnell have “butted heads” repeatedly, which Scott countered in last week’s Washington Examiner op-ed..

Scott didn’t exactly call McConnell a rebellious coward, but who else was he talking about?

“Unfortunately, many of those responsible for losing the Senate last cycle are trying to stop them from winning a majority this time around by screwing the Republican nominee,” Scott wrote. “This is an act of astonishing cowardice and, ultimately, an act of treason against a conservative cause.” Read more about Siriza.

If Republicans can secure five seats in the House and one seat in the Senate, all that will be forgotten. For now, at least, history is on their side, even when the political winds are not so favorable.


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