The center of Hurricane Cay will be very close to the western-central Baja California peninsula shortly after it reaches its peak intensity on Thursday and Friday. It will then turn westward and weaken further after approaching San Diego on Saturday.
The worst is expected on the peninsula. However, the storm will dictate weather patterns in Southern California over the weekend.
Kay endured 85 mph winds Tuesday morning, with the center of the storm more than 300 miles from the southern tip of the peninsula. The hurricane is expected to intensify this week as it moves northwest along Mexico’s west coast.
The National Hurricane Center said, “It is projected to intensify over the next 36 hours, during which time Cay could become a major hurricane.” ) is estimated to extend outwards to 175 miles from the center.”
The effects of these winds, waves and rainfall can extend far from the center of the cay, warns the Hurricane Center.
Cay is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain in an isolated storm totaling 12 inches in parts of western Mexico through Thursday night. These rainfalls can lead to flash floods, including landslides.
The storm has already brought torrential rains to Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Puebla and Oaxaca, according to Mexico’s National Weather Service.
At least three people have died in the storm, said Roberto Arroyo, director of civil protection in Guerrero state, in a camera statement to Reuters on Sunday.
There are still questions about Kay’s exact impact on Southern California, but the possibilities are:
Overheat warning extension
Hurricane Cay is still about 220 miles south of San Diego on Friday, the Los Angeles Weather Service wrote, but currents around the storm could bring easterly winds to the area and bring extreme heat down to the beaches. I have. .
San Diego’s National Weather Service said Friday’s high temperature forecast for the coast and valley is mixed. “Eastern winds strengthen between the high pressure system to the north and the tropical system to the south, resulting in downhill warming, while increased humidity and clouds from the south could offset warming.”
The San Diego Weather Service is extending an excessive heat warning for the region through Friday given the likelihood of high temperatures of 90 to 100 degrees reaching the coast on Friday.
Similarly, the Los Angeles Bureau of Weather Service also said heat warnings would likely need to be extended through Friday.
It’s not just about daytime temperatures. Kay was able to keep her warm all night long.
According to the Los Angeles Weather Service, easterly currents off the Cay on Friday could bring a very warm night to the coast and valleys of Los Angeles.
However, temperatures will drop throughout the weekend as cloud cover increases as the cay approaches.
“Expect 10 to 15 degrees on Saturday and a couple of degrees cooler on Sunday,” the LA office said.
“Beyond the heat that could hit the coast and valley on Friday, increasing humidity will finally bring this long weekend heat wave to an end and the high temperatures will not be so hot,” the San Diego office said. .
Cays can bring a few inches of rain
“The eventual trajectory of Hurricane Cay’s weakening is also noteworthy,” the WPC said Tuesday morning. “The final remnants of this storm could bring more precipitation to Southern California and Arizona by the end of the week.”
The San Diego Weather Service said “rain is possible along the eastern slopes of the mountain Friday afternoon.” “There will be a higher chance of precipitation over the weekend across the region.”
The WPC says the southwestern part of the desert is also likely to see a surge in moisture. As such, the WPC has announced a modest risk (Level 2 of 4) of possible excess rainfall in parts of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona on Saturday in its experimental forecast.
Some computer forecast models show little rainfall, while others show extreme amounts. The range of precipitation is typical for systems this far away, the National Weather Service said.
As such, “this system could bring significant precipitation to parts of this area,” said the Los Angeles NWS.
According to the San Diego office, the areas with the highest potential for more rainfall are along the mountain’s eastern slopes.
In addition to rainfall, strong winds and dangerous waves can affect the area, depending on how close the storm approaches Southern California.
More will be known as the storm progresses northwest.