
Condic: You can’t discount the possibilities. One of the reasons presidential parties often struggle in midterm elections is that they change the status quo and end up unpopular. An example is the Affordable Care Act passed by Democrats in 2010. This was a political albatross, at least in that election.
What makes 2022 different and unusual is that Republicans, who are barred from both the White House and Congress, will find their side more dramatic to the status quo, as Republican appointees to the Supreme Court have removed their constitutional protections. I saw you made an unpopular change. For abortion rights. This appears to have had the effect of giving the Democrats some of the power the opposition would gain in the midterm elections.
It complicated the math of the midterm elections, even though some elements of the midterm elections remained bad for the presidential party – the most obvious being that the president himself was unpopular.
Condic: The word “unique” gets thrown around a lot, but it could actually still apply in 2022. Trump’s large presence as a defeated ex-president is unique, as is the opposition seen as agents behind unpopular policies. Policy change — Dobbs decision.
Also, if the Democrats actually have a good midterm election – I define it as keeping the Republicans in the House with a small majority and holding the Senate (holding both is more likely than just “good”). is also classified as excellent)- it’s strange that they do that even though the president is unpopular.
Recent presidents preside over decent midterm elections for their party, but their endorsements are usually strong – like Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002. Carter’s numbers in the fall of 1978 were actually passable, but should be in Jimmy Carter’s only midterm (according to Gallup, despite a weak summer, the endorsement was his 40). was in the late 80s). Ronald in 1982 in his Reagan first midterm election might also make a decent comparison. But while Democrats did only well (not very well) in the House that year, redistricting played an important role, Republicans, thanks to a favorable map, won the Senate in 1982. comfortably held a majority of
That said, just because the situation is perhaps unique doesn’t mean it’s going to be an extraordinary outcome: Republicans can still overthrow both houses of Congress.
I think Colorado will remain a sleeper. It’s a Democrat trend, but it’s still competitive and Republicans wisely nominated Joe O’Dea as their nominee. I still consider Senator Michael Bennett (Democrat) a definite supporter But I think it’s a plausible target for the Republican Party.
Walner: Are there any particular districts you’re looking to lead the way in the fight for the House?
VA-2 is also on the East Coast. That means you need to know what’s going on early on election night, ahead of other important districts.
Source: www.cnn.com