This One Problem Could Save the Democrats in November

In Florida, the Democrats nominated a moderate Republican ex-governor, Senator Charlie Christnow a supporter of abortion rights, as a candidate to run again for his old job against conservative Governor Ron DeSantis.

Rep. Val Demings, a former police chief, is the Florida Democratic nominee running against Republican Senator Marco Rubio.

In New York City, a self-funded Democratic candidate considered moderate currently leading The less-available Manhattan House district’s more progressive major, but CNN has yet to make a prediction in the race. Hase, appeared on TV as an analyst.

But the bigger lesson so far for 2022 is a focus on protecting abortion rights from the U.S. Supreme Court and Republican-dominated state governments. Stopping the ‘red wave’ of November.

In upstate New York, Iraq War veteran Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican opponent Mark Molinaro in a special election for the House of Representatives.

Ryan has done better in the district against Molinaro than President Joe Biden did against former President Donald Trump in 2020.

Ryan told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Wednesday that his decision to focus on abortion came from seeing the impact of Supreme Court decisions on the ground in his district.

“I think you can beat any effort by actually listening to people on the ground,” he said.

Hope of the Democratic Party Kansas Surprise Earlier this month, key voters in the deficit state refused to give Republican lawmakers the power to enact new abortion laws.

Abortion was put directly on the ballot in the Kansas election, but it was simply the focus of the New York special election campaign. Now, with both parties using money to win hotly contested seats, Democrats are finding a way where they seemed to have slipped out of their reach earlier this year.

Related: Headlines like these do nothing to help Republicans among the majority of Americans who support some form of abortion rights:

Why can the New York state special election suggest anything about what will happen in November?

Although CNN’s political director David Chalian always warns against reading too much into any one constituency, in an email, both Ryan and Molinaro reflected national messages from their respective parties. said there is. Republican Crime.

“The fact that Ryan won and won by overtaking Biden’s margin of victory from 2020 suggests that the expected red wave for 2022 may have landed early.

He also pointed out that Republicans don’t need waves to control the House or Senate.

How seriously does history stack up against Democrats?

The historical precedent is for Democrats to lose seats.

Since World War II, the political party of the president has been often lost seatsin all but two midterm elections, in 1998 after Bill Clinton was impeached and in 2002 toward the war in Iraq.

If 2022 is to be added to that list, the irrelevant circumstance would have to be a Supreme Court decision overriding the abortion rights guaranteed in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Agency decision. Overthrowing the Roe v. Wade case.

Obvious changes after Roe was flipped

CNN’s Harry Enten points out that in the three special elections before Dobbs ruled in late June, the Democratic nominee was 6 percentage points worse than Biden’s 2020 baseline.

In four special elections after Dobbs’ decision, Democrats beat Biden’s 2020 gap in districts.

Enten’s take: “All in all, Democrats have averaged 4 points ahead in House special elections since Roe was overthrown. That’s a 10-point shift from the pre-judgment average.” Read full text.

Doing Better Doesn’t Mean Winning

Republicans have won three of the four races Democrats have beaten Biden since Dobbs’ decision.

Additionally, CNN’s Ethan Cohen said Alaska had its fifth special election, an unusual election. rank choice election Two Republicans and one Democrat will participate. The final result will not be decided until the end of the month.

When Fame Doesn’t Reflect in Politics

Enten also writes about the popularity issues facing many of the leading Republican Senate candidates in the most contested races heading into the fall.

Pennsylvania television doctor Mehmet Oz and Georgia football legend Herschel Walker, both new to politics, find it difficult to connect with voters in states where the Republican Party must win. read more.

GOP Senate rule is a ’50/50 proposal’

A counterexample is Colorado, where moderate Republican novice and businessman Joe O’Dea wins the Republican primary. Now, Democratic Senator Michael Bennett has to battle O’Dea, who has a history of supporting abortion rights, for the middle ground in a state that has tended to lean Democratic in recent years.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Republican Party would make the Senate “a50/50 propositionThey are more likely to control the House, he said.

Campaign cash flow after Dobbs decision

CNN’s Fredreka Schouten and David Wright They wrote after a July fundraiser that the Supreme Court ruling was helpful. Boost your campaign cash To the Democrats who have outsmarted their opponents in key election campaigns.

According to Schuten and Wright, “the day the actual verdict was announced, June 24, and the day after it were two of the most fundraising days of the DSCC election cycle,” said Schuten and Wright. A source from the athletic department said,” Schuten and Wright said. .

Abortion rights are boosting Democrats

For further evidence that abortion has changed the political landscape this year, consider less than half (43%) of registered voters. told the Pew Research Center In March before Dobbs’ decision, the abortion issue was “very important” to their vote.

In August, more than half (56%) said it was “very important.” The growth was almost entirely among Democrats.

The economy remains an issue most Americans (77%) say is “very important.”

But Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s director of polling and election analysis, explains why it’s important to be careful not to read too much into any single result or data point.

“These things are positive signs for Democrats right now, but it’s not entirely clear whether the November results will change in any meaningful way.

Agiesta is Cook Political Report What appeared to be a wave of Republicans earlier this year may turn out to be a ripple, but speculated that the special election would be very different from the general election.

Special Election Wildcard

Each post-Dobbs special election also shared one key trait: college students.

“Democrat success in these special elections has been fueled by high involvement in enclaves with high concentrations of colleges, such as Lincoln, Nebraska; Rochester, Minnesota; Ulster County, New York; and Ithaca, New York. It’s not representative of the larger Fall voters,” Cook analysts wrote.

Source: www.cnn.com