Adam Wollner: Between the economy, abortion and many other issues, there’s clearly a lot on voters’ minds heading into the midterms. How do you think January 6th will affect this equation? ?
Sarah Longwell: I’ve been conducting focus groups almost every week for the past two years, and I have no doubt that the economy, inflation, crime, and healthcare costs are top priorities for most voters. For most of 2022, the November election looked like it would be a simple referendum against Joe Biden and the Democrats. Republicans hoped to use their dissatisfaction with the economy to get back college-educated suburban voters. But the combination of the Jan. 6 hearings, Dobbs’ decision, and the nomination of an extreme Republican nominee who campaigned on the lie that his 2020 election was stolen led to many statewide votes. The Republican Party has lost its edge in the election. The Jan. 6 hearings went very well, and Donald Trump’s election lie was brought to justice. And Republican candidates who run on these lies are not well received by swing voters.
Longwell: Trump himself may not be on the ballot, but the forces he unleashed in the Republican Party certainly are. Republican leaders hoped the 2022 election would be about table issues that favored the Republican Party, but Trump — and the candidate he endorsed in the Republican primary — has a 2020 election. I keep looking back at the election. The failure to look ahead and Trump’s loitering with disgruntled politics and election lies actually made the Jan. 6 Commission all the more important. It is Trump and the candidates who emulate him that make swinging voters and right-leaning moderates sick. By endorsing in so many primaries and filling the Republican field with weirdos and conspiracy theorists, Trump has been able to get into the polls for voters he finds repulsive.
Longwell: Mostly, it was changing their perception of potential electoral potential if Trump were the Republican nominee in 2024. Those numbers changed dramatically after the hearings began. I want to be clear that I don’t think it’s because Republican voters see the hearings and are persuaded that Trump is the bad guy who did bad things. I like. I would describe it as ‘penetrating’ rather than ‘breaking through’. They’re a little fed up with his 2020 election complaints and want to move on from the Jan. 6 conversation. This has made me start thinking about other options for 2024. Focus groups have many Ron DeSantis fans of his and many other potential candidates people are interested in hearing more about. After all, as these voters tell me, if Trump is nominated and wins, he’ll only get four years in the White House. can last for 8 years.
Wollner: Were there any specific moments or findings from the January hearings so far that resonated with voters?
Longwell: Cassidy Hutchinson had a breakout moment. There was a lot of intrigue around the emergency hearing. Even before she testified in person, she had already conveyed some important things that seemed to stick with voters, such as an amnesty. People are skeptical of pardons. The fact that members of Congress and Trump’s aides were asking for a pardon is a red flag that people were doing things they shouldn’t be doing.
WALNER: Looking ahead to 2024, is there room for an anti-Trump Republican like Liz Cheney to run for president as a spoiler candidate?
Longwell: I don’t think Liz Cheney is interested in being a spoiler candidate. I hope you understand. She thinks there’s a very narrow lane in the Republican primary, where Liz tries to appeal to about 30% of Republicans who don’t believe the 2020 election was stolen, but her goals is not about winning, she thinks. That is to bring a case against Trump directly to a Republican audience. she will probably lose. But she goes hard on Trump in a way that further undermines him with Trump’s enduring vulnerability: swing voters.
Source: www.cnn.com
