Trump’s shadow looms over last-ditch effort to revive Iran’s nuclear deal

Marandi said the IAEA’s accusations “must end once and for all” in order for Iran to sign the updated deal.

Iran has dismissed the IAEA motion as “politicized” and has responded by removing surveillance cameras in key locations. handle.

That’s why observers were surprised when the negotiators returned to Vienna last week. Tehran’s cautious support for the latest draft deal has raised the odds of an imminent return to the deal despite remaining hurdles. Even hardliners in the country, who have staunchly opposed it since it was signed by then-President Hassan Rouhani and the Obama administrations in 2015, have hailed the draft as an improvement over previous versions.

But Iran continues to limp after that. Biden administration resumes We are in talks to revive a deal that was almost a year and a half ago. One of his reasons, Iranian analysts argue, is due to the enormous influence wielded by his one person who was absent from the negotiations: Trump. Analysts say Iran is basing its negotiations on the possibility that a Republican candidate who aligns with Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election, and that Trump himself will win. According to Iran’s calculations, Biden’s successor will again pull out of the deal, unleashing a new flurry of sanctions against the country.

“Trump’s shadow looms over these negotiations as they have been dragged out over the past year as Iran has focused on securing economic guarantees,” said the London-based firm. Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj Media, said. Iran, Iraq, Arabian Peninsula.

“If US secondary sanctions come back like we saw when Trump abandoned the deal and all the major Western private companies fled and never looked back, how would we prevent that? huh?” said Shabani. “What mechanisms can we put in place to prevent that from happening again?”

Secondary sanctions are U.S. mechanisms that penalize governments or organizations that conduct financial transactions with sanctioned entities.

In a development that risks adding another hurdle to negotiations, the US Justice Department announced Tuesday it had filed criminal charges against allegedly trying to organize members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Assassination of John BoltonHe has held senior national security positions in the Trump and Bush administrations.

Still, Iran would benefit a lot from re-concluding the agreement, even if only for a short period of time.

Sanctions relief could free up tens of billions of dollars in oil and gas revenues over the next two years, supporting Iran’s struggling economy and boosting the popularity of Iran’s hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, Shabani said. said.

Conversely, if negotiations continue to run into difficulties, the international community will face a major crisis.Since Trump withdrew from negotiations and launched an aggressive sanctions regime in May 2018, Tehran enriched with uranium Higher level, faster speed. The United Nations nuclear watchdog said in June that it would take Iran weeks to possess “a significant amount of enriched uranium”, but added that it “does not imply possession of a bomb”.

Moreover, time remains critical as lengthening negotiations complicates negotiations. Earlier this year, Iran’s request to remove the Revolutionary Guard from the US terrorist list was considered the last hurdle to revive the deal. That issue now seems to be out of the question. However, the development of Iran’s uranium enrichment program has raised new issues that have led to the IAEA’s condemnation of Tehran.

Iran has accused the West of trying to weaponize the IAEA’s accusations and is using it as a legal pretext to withdraw from future agreements. Marandi told CNN that withdrawing the motion was a precondition for the restoration of the deal.

“Otherwise, the Iranians have no doubt that the Americans will take advantage of this or use it as a tool to undermine the agreement within weeks or months at most. This is a prerequisite for the implementation of the agreement.”

Still, there is reason for some optimism, and even if it goes astray, it may have its benefits.

Shabani argued that an imminent return to a deal would “give both sides a breather”, even if it were to be canceled again in 2025.

“The US can put the nuclear genie back in the bottle for three years and then deal with it again in 2025,” Shabani said.

digest

Russia puts Iranian satellite into orbit

Russia launched an Iranian satellite into orbit from southern Kazakhstan on Tuesday, just three weeks after President Vladimir Putin and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged to cooperate with Western powers, Reuters reported. The satellite successfully entered orbit, according to the Russian space agency.

  • Background: Tehran rejects claims Russia could use the satellite to boost its intelligence capabilities in Ukraine, saying Iran will fully control and operate it “from day one” Iran says the satellite is designed for scientific research, including radiation and environmental monitoring for agricultural purposes.
  • Important reasons: The Washington Post reported last week that US officials are concerned about fledgling space cooperation between Russia and Iran. He fears the satellite will not only help Russia in Ukraine, but also provide Iran with an “unprecedented ability” to monitor potential military targets for Israel and the broader middle class. . east. In July, Putin made his first visit to Iran outside the former Soviet Union since Russia launched military operations in Ukraine.

Former Twitter employee convicted in Saudi spy case

A former Twitter manager accused of spying for Saudi Arabia acted as the country’s agent and attempted to disguise payments from Saudi royal family members, according to a Reuters report. was convicted on six counts.

  • Background: Ahmad Abouammo is a US-Lebanese dual citizen who has helped oversee relationships with journalists and celebrities from the Middle East and North Africa on Twitter. The defense attorney argued that the work he did on Twitter was simply part of his work.A federal public defender representing Abouammo did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Twitter declined to comment. A jury acquitted him on five of the 11 counts he faced.
  • Important reasons: According to prosecutors, he was hired by Badel Al-Asaker, an aide to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to use insider knowledge to access Twitter accounts and identify individuals about Saudi dissidents. These accounts included the pseudonym @mujtahidd, a political agitator who garnered millions of Twitter followers during the Arab Spring riots by denouncing corruption and other misdeeds in the Saudi royal family. It is said that

Meran uses cryptocurrency to place first import order

Iran has placed its first official import order using cryptocurrencies this week, Reuters news agency quoted the semi-official Tasnim agency as saying on Tuesday. “By the end of September, the use of cryptocurrencies and smart contracts will be widely used in foreign trade with the target countries,” an official from the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade said on Twitter.

  • Background: The order, worth $10 million, is the first step toward allowing the country to trade through digital assets that bypass the dollar-dominated global financial system, and others, such as Russia, are similarly restricted by US sanctions. countries. The agency did not specify the cryptocurrencies used in the transactions.
  • Important reasons: A move that could allow the Islamic Republic to circumvent US sanctions that have paralyzed its economy. Tehran is he one of the largest economies yet to adopt cryptocurrency technology. A survey last year found that 4.5% of his total bitcoin mining was done in Iran. This is partly thanks to Iran’s cheap electricity.

Surrounding area

A video of a Gulf Arab student tossing big bucks out of a convertible sports car on a busy street in Jordan has gone viral on Arab social media, sparking accusations of glitz and how people should behave abroad. sparked controversy.

A man who appears to be celebrating his graduation is seen standing in a red Ford Mustang wearing graduation robes over a traditional Arab tunic and tossing cash in the air while blocking traffic. increase. Bystanders are seen scrambling to collect as much money as possible. The license plate on the car was Kuwait.

“And they say we’re not treated well [abroad]Kuwait’s Ahmed Al Sharqawi tweeted, apparently referring to the Gulf Arabs. “Respect others and you will be respected”

Kuwaiti activist Khaled Al-Awadi said in the video Posted on Twitter that the act “presents us” [Kuwaitis] As people who act in provocative ways because we have money. ”

“If an expatriate behaved like this in our country, we would all have turned our backs on him,” he added, calling on parents to “raise their children well.”

Oil-rich Kuwait is one of the richest Arab countries and one of the world’s most valuable currencies.

Ann apology video It surfaced on Twitter by a man claiming to be a student in the first clip, his face blurred and stating that he is actually Bahraini. The man apologized for “behaving inappropriately” by borrowing a Kuwaiti friend’s car and said he was merely “expressing his joy”.

Mohammed Abdelbari

time capsule

King Hussein of Jordan, Lausanne, August 12, 1952

This week marks the 70th anniversary of King Hussein bin Talal ascending the throne of Jordan.

Hussein was the third monarch to rule the Hashemite Kingdom. He was proclaimed king after his father, Talal, was declared unfit to rule due to mental illness by the country’s parliament.

Beginning his reign as a 17-year-old schoolboy on 11 August 1952, by the end of his life he had evolved into a respected politician, peace broker and the longest-serving ruler in the Middle East. .

Hussein hails from the Hashemite dynasty, believed to be descended from the Prophet Muhammad, and ruled a kingdom older than him for over 40 years. His reign was marked by threats to his dominance at home and the loss of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to Israel in war, although Jordan signed a peace treaty with the Jewish state after his two deaths. It also became the second Arab country.

Hussein succumbed to a battle with cancer on February 7, 1999 at the age of 63. He was succeeded by his eldest son King Abdullah, the current ruler of Jordan.



Source: www.cnn.com

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