1. Pennsylvania: Lieutenant John Fetterman (Democrat) vs. celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz (right)
2. Nevada: Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (Democrat) vs. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (Republican)
3. Georgia: Sen. Raphael Warnock (Democrat) vs. Former Soccer Player Herschel Walker (Republican)
4. Arizona: Senator Mark Kelly (Democrat) vs. Venture Capitalist Blake Masters (Republican)
Of the remaining races in the top 10, two other November matchups have yet to be confirmed. In New Hampshire, which ranked sixth on the list, Democratic Sen. You never know who will emerge from the field of relatively unknown Republican candidates. He’s the most likely candidate.
As the situation unfolds 90 days after Election Day, there is reason to start feeling a little optimistic about the chances of the Democrats continuing to dominate the 50-50 Senate.
At the macro level, the severe headwinds the party has faced for most of the economic cycle may be starting to ease somewhat.
Recent polls suggest that President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remain low, but he’s finally starting to tie in some legislative victories. This week he signed legislation aimed at:
Boosting American chip manufacturing When
Expansion of medical benefits For veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.The Senate also passed major bills
climate, taxes, medical costs Over the weekend, he’ll likely head to Biden’s desk after the House picks it up in the next few days.
The economy, voters’ biggest problem, remains in rough shape, but there are signs that things may improve in the last few days.inflation
Slowing down in Julyup to date
monthly job report Showed higher than expected profits as gas prices are rising
keep going downAnd last week’s crushing victory for abortion rights advocates on a constitutional amendment in Kansas prompted Democrats to
With confidence Ability to take advantage of problems.
There are also some positive indicators at the individual race level that Democrats can point to.
In the five most hotly contested elections above (all states won by Biden in 2020), incumbent Democratic senators
soaring sharply Republican opponents in three of them (Nevada, Georgia, Arizona).In Pennsylvania, Fetterman early
Voting and Fundraising Benefitsis scheduled for
Return to campaign trail This week after having a stroke in May. In Wisconsin, Democrats were already largely united behind Barnes after Barnes’ main opposition dropped out in the final stretch of the race.
Republicans also took risks by nominating first-time candidates like Oz, Walker, and Masters, but found them all already embroiled in controversy.
Even Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell
modest expectations during a recent appearance on Fox News. “I think he’s going to be very tight,” he said. “When the smoke clears from this Senate election, I think it’s likely that the Senate will be very close and either we’ll go up a little or the Democrats will go up a little.”
This is not to say that the Democrats have somehow completely turned the tide.But the Senate’s playing field underscores that it’s far more fertile for the party than the House.
60% chance To maintain control of the Senate,
20% chance hold the house
point: The main question at stake in the race for the House of Representatives over the next three months is not whether the Republicans will win a majority, but how much. But the senatorial battle is likely to end.
