This is what post-Roe polls address the main issues of voters.

In the weeks following the Supreme Court’s ruling, we’ve seen the first wave of polls trying to measure where voters’ priorities are now and what that means for the next election. Early results suggest a surge in concerns about abortion and women’s rights, with Democratic attention specifically focused on this issue. At the same time, they find that most of the voters’ focus remains elsewhere for now.

What voters care about and how their priorities influence their decisions is too complex to be fully understood in a single voting question. To the extent that voters personally care about the issue, the issue is decided in the election by motivating someone to vote when they cannot vote otherwise, or by persuading another candidate to vote. It’s not the question of whether it’s a target or not. Otherwise than they have. However, by comparing the answers to different questions, you can get a broader, more nuanced picture.

Some ways pollsters ask about election issues, what we can and cannot do about public opinion, and some early data on how the aftermath of Roe’s decision has been made so far. Let’s see what might suggest about.

question: The importance of the question (for example, “How important is this question to you?” Or “How important is this question to your vote?”)

What it can tell us: Voters tend to be quite exaggerated about considering individual issues that deserve attention.of CNN poll earlier this year We asked about 11 different issues that could arise in the midterm elections, from inflation to Covid-19 to climate change. Each topic was considered “very” or “very” important by the majority of voters. (It also tends to argue that advocates often abuse it and argue that the public is deeply investing in the particular policy they want to enact.) But by comparing the numbers between the issues, they are relative priorities. You can clarify the ranking. For example, in that CNN poll, 59% of registered voters said the economy was very important to voting, and only 30% said the same about climate change.

This question can also reveal meaningful divisions and trends regarding the problem. For example, those who support policy reveal that they are more focused on policy than those who oppose it, and that a growing proportion of people are deeply interested in the topic. Rapidly in a short time.

Description of abortion: and Post-decision New York Times / Siena University pollAbortion, a majority of 61% of registered voters, states that abortion is very important to their vote. However, in the same poll, similar shares make crime (63%) and gun policy (65%) very important, accounting for about three-quarters. Say the same thing About the economy (76%), about inflation and living expenses (78%). Compared to half of Republican voters, 77% of Democratic voters said abortion was very important.

The survey does not provide historical trends.However Gallup survey conducted in early JuneBefore the court ruling, abortion had already gained new relevance to the electorate after the leak of the May decision, even though it was not as widely concerned as other topics. Suggests. In that poll, 42% of Americans said abortion was very important for voting in Congress, slightly below 52% who said gun policy was very important, and 53% did the same for the economy. But it is much higher than past surveys.

As Gallup’s Lydia Saad and Megan Brenan pointed out, “The importance of gun policy and abortion to voting choices is much higher on record and is now even higher given what happened after the polls were completed. There is a possibility.”

question: Top-level issues (for example, “Which of these issues?” many Is it important to you? Or “Which is the most important issue for your vote?”)

What it can tell us: Letting people choose which problem comes to mind may be like an artificial constraint-many people care about multiple aspects of American politics-but it’s also voters. Helps you feel more keen about where your priorities are, the time of the survey, and how they differ between blocks. The answers to this question often reflect the issues that the campaign chooses to prioritize and the extent to which those efforts are resonating with the general public.

Description of abortion: Ann AP-NORC pollWas carried out during the Supreme Court’s decision week and was able to capture the immediate effect of the decision. Forty-three percent of the interviews were conducted before the judgment and the rest were conducted after the judgment. In polls, 13% cited the issue of abortion or women’s rights as one of the top five issues the government wanted to address. This has already increased compared to much of the last decade. Among those investigated after the court ruling, the number of abortion or women’s rights nominations has risen to 30%. According to AP-NORC polls, Roe’s overthrow immediately widened the party’s strength gap on this issue. Prior to the decision, Democrats were 9 percentage points higher than Republicans, citing abortion and women’s rights as top priorities (18% vs. 9%). The next day, the gap rose to 28 points (42% vs. 14%).

However, a smaller number of voters call abortion their primary concern. In a New York Times / Siena poll, only 5% of registered voters cite democracy or women’s rights as the only most important issue facing the country: economy (20%), inflation (15). %), Behind democracy and political division. (11%) and gun policy (10%).

question: The Lithomas exam (for example, “Given how this issue affects voting in major offices, do you only vote for candidates who share your opinion, or many important things when voting? Do you consider the candidate’s position as one of the key factors, or isn’t it? A big problem? “)

What it can tell us: Rather than priority questions, Lithomas exam questions are important enough to play a decisive role in making choices, trying to understand how a particular question affects the actual decision-making process of voters. Ask to decide if. .. However, even that question is more complicated than it looks.For one thing, increased ideological cohesion between both politician When Ordinary American This means that most voters’ views on a particular topic are likely to be in line with the party they plan to vote for anyway.

Description of abortion: of Post-decision PRRI survey, 32% of Americans say they only vote for candidates who share their views on abortion. This is up from 20% of the group’s 2020 poll. The party’s balance to this question has also been reversed. Two years ago, the Republicans said they saw abortion as an election litmus test, 15 points higher than the Democrats, 32% to 17%. In contrast, in the latest polls, Democrats were 12 points higher than Republicans, 43% to 31%.

It is worth scrutinizing that Republicans and Democrats now consider abortion a crucial issue. According to the data provided by the PRRI, the percentage of Americans who consider abortion to be a Litmus test was the highest among those who matched abortion with the party. 16% among Republican supporters of abortion rights. (Too few Democrats against abortion to look at these numbers individually in the survey.) Similar proportions of abortion supporters (26%) and opponents (23%) are politically independent. Among them, their view on the issue states that they will only vote for shared candidates.

question: Relative Possibility of Voting (For example, “Does the news on this issue make you more likely to vote in the next election?”)

That tells us: The Lithomas exam questions are intended to help you understand the likelihood that people will vote based solely on a particular question, but this question is about how the latest news about a question affects people’s voting potential. Try to measure what you do.

Unfortunately, it’s not a simple and intuitive question. To answer literally, respondents need to do a series of complex mental arithmetic. Recalling the possibility that I used to think I would vote, and considering the impact of news on my motivation level, I calculate the relative difference (“previously”, I was only 76% likely to vote. , Now at least 83%! “)

Perhaps, of course, people please do not Tend to answer literally.. Inevitably, some who are already confident that they will vote, “I’m going to vote. I care. About this issue.”

To actually measure the impact of an event on a voter’s enthusiasm and choice, it’s better to look at the polling trendline for more commonly asked questions. How Invested Voters Participate in Elections And the political parties they are planning to vote for. If there is a meaningful inflection, it should be pretty obvious.

Description of abortion: Following the decision NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist Voting (We did not give respondents a clear option to say that the judgment did not affect the chances of voting), we found that 62% of the voters said they would increase their chances of voting. In contrast, CBS News / YouGov Poll (Given respondents the opportunity to say nothing changed) Only 33% of adults said they were more likely to vote.

That disparity is a good reason to answer them with a grain of salt. However, it is worth noting that in both questions, the Democrats were much more likely than the Republicans to say that this issue made them more likely to vote. It doesn’t necessarily predict much about turnout, but it’s another sign that this issue is a much stronger resonance among Democrats.

Source: www.cnn.com

This is what post-Roe polls address the main issues of voters.

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