This crucial moment can also impose harsh decisions on the Western government, which has so far provided assistance to Ukraine at a steadily increasing cost of its economy and domestic stockpiles of weapons.
“I think one of them has reached the point of success,” said a NATO official. “Russians arrive in Slovyansk and arrive in Kramatorsk, or Ukrainians stop them here. And in the face of this number of forces, if Ukrainians can maintain the line here, it is. It’s important. ”
3 potential consequences
Western officials are closely watching three possible scenarios that they believe may unfold.
Second, there are those that authorities consider most unlikely. Russia can redefine the purpose of the war, announce that it has achieved victory, and attempt a near-combat design. For now, the scenario seems to be just wishful thinking, sources say.
If Ukrainian allies want to thwart Russia’s territorial ambitions, Western military aid “must come sooner,” he said.
Western officials broadly believe that Russia is in a more favorable position in the east, based solely on mass. Still, “Russia’s progress is not a natural conclusion,” said a senior Biden administration official.
As the front lines of the conflict settled in a war of attrition built around front and back artillery, both sides suffered enormous casualties and are now facing a potential shortage of personnel. Russia has also suffered a one-third loss of ground forces, and US intelligence officials have publicly stated that Russia will struggle to make serious profits without full mobilization. ..
So far, the fighting has been centered around two sister cities, Sieviero Donetsk and Lysychans’k, on the other side of the Severodonetsk River. Ukrainian fighters are almost completely surrounded by Sieviero Donetsk.
Western analysts believe Ukraine is likely to defend Lysychans’k on the hills, but there are already nasty signs that Russia is trying to cut off the city’s supply lines by advancing from the southeast.
“In many respects, the fate of our Donbus is determined around these two cities,” Zelensky said last week.
Soviet system preferences
US officials claim that Western weapons are still at the forefront of the battle. However, local reports of arms shortages, and complaints from Ukrainian officials on the front lines, raise questions about how effectively supply lines are operating. Ukraine has sought not only heavy artillery, but more basic supplies such as ammunition.
Part of the problem was that even when Ukraine ran out of old Soviet ammunition that fits the existing system, there was also an obstacle to migrating the fighter to a Western NATO compliant system. For one thing, training soldiers with these systems takes time and keeps the necessary fighters away from the battlefield.
In some cases, according to one source familiar with US intelligence, Ukraine simply chooses not to use the unfamiliar Western system. For example, despite receiving hundreds of Switchblade drones, some units prefer to use off-the-shelf drones equipped with more user-friendly explosives.
On the other hand, there are still a limited number of Soviet-era munitions that can be sent to Ukraine elsewhere in the world. The United States is asking countries with old stockpiles to figure out what they can offer to Ukraine, but for Ukraine and its supplying allies, the penal artillery battle is “the Soviet stuff on the surface of the earth.” Clean up from. ”
The United States has a clear grasp of Russia’s battlefield defeat, but has struggled from the beginning to assess Ukraine’s combat power. Authorities admit that the United States has no clear view of where Western weapons go or how effectively they will be used after crossing the border to Ukraine-combat information forecasts. And as tricky as policy decisions on how and when to supply Ukraine.
A senior Biden administration told CNN that the United States is “trying to deepen their understanding.” [the Ukrainians’] When asked specifically if there was a shortage of Ukrainian ammunition and weapons, he said “consumption rate and pace of operation.” “It’s hard to understand,” he said. It is clear that Ukraine makes heavy use of cannons provided by the United States and other Western nations. Many travel inside and outside the country for repairs.
The blind spot is partly because Ukraine hasn’t told the West everything, Western officials say. And because the fighting is concentrated in such a small area, relatively close to Russia, Western intelligence does not have the same visibility as elsewhere.
“Especially when going down to tactical levels, where most of the fighting is taking place, it’s far from us, close to Russia, and the troops are very close to each other,” said a NATO official. “Therefore, it is difficult to get a detailed picture of the occasional battle in the east.”
NATO officials can also predict how Ukrainian troops will function at this crucial moment, as casualties increase and civilian volunteers rushed to train are participating in the fighting. He added that it was difficult. Their performance under fire is unknown.
“Making people available is one thing, but the question is whether they are ready for battle. I think you’ll see that as a factor,” officials said. ..
Predict Putin’s next move
Meanwhile, US and other Western officials have seen no signs that Putin’s commitment to prosecuting costly wars has diminished.
“As for the strategic goals we determine that Putin has against Ukraine, I have no sign that they have changed,” NATO officials said. “He still believes that Putin will eventually succeed and gain physical control of Ukraine or, in a significant part, or ideally as a whole, a form of political control over Ukraine. “
However, there is growing awareness that while Putin’s commitment remains solid, Western commitment may not.
As the battle prolongs, costs to the Western government continue to rise. Some Western governments, including the United States, are concerned that the flow of weapons donated to Ukraine is depleting the country’s stockpiles, which are essential to its defense.
“It’s a legitimate concern” for the United States, a senior government official admitted.
Then, of course, there are high energy prices and high inflation puncture wounds. Some officials fear that Western support for Ukraine may diminish as these costs begin to affect the general public and the attention of the United States and Europe and the media begins to drift from daily battles. I am.
Ukrainian military international military spokesman on Monday condemned “self-satisfaction” among Ukrainian military patrons, and the country needed far more support to defeat Russia’s aggression. He said he was.
Damian McGraw, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Legion of Territory, said, “The delivery of weapons that Ukraine has already provided seems to have fallen into a western partner that somehow is sufficient to win the war. There is a certain sense of self-satisfaction. ” , During a press conference.
“They aren’t! They aren’t close to what makes it possible for us to defeat the Russians on the battlefield.”
Source: www.cnn.com
