Are There Really Non-MAGA Wings for the Republican Party?

All Republicans, even the majority of Republicans, are not MAGA Republicans. Not all Republicans embrace extreme ideologies.

And he repeated that sentiment on Labor Day During a speech in Wisconsin“Not all Republicans are MAGA Republicans,” Biden said. I know because.”

The strategy is simple; As Trump continues to lie that his 2020 election was stolen, and the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, Biden is urging Republicans who feel alienated from their party to join him. I want to make sure that I can find a home for you. , and more broadly with Democrats in the fall campaign.

This is a smart approach. Especially given that some of the most contested Senate seats in 2022 happen to be in the most influential states in the country, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

But recent Biden rhetoric raises broader questions for me. Is he correct that “even the Republican majority” closely equates Trump with the MAGA movement more generally? Or, put another way, for Biden to vote for his side If they can be persuaded, are there really enough non-MAGA Republicans to let the Democrats sway the election?

There is no poll question that directly answers that question. But there are some recent polls that give us some answers — all coming from different directions. (And thanks to CNN’s polling and analysis editors. Ariel Edwards Levi See help for these numbers. )
*Late July CNN poll 44% of registered Republican or Republican-leaning voters said the Republican Party should nominate Trump in 2024. A majority of 55% said Republicans should nominate another candidate. Of those 55%, voters said they would prefer another candidate because they don’t want Trump to be president (27%), and those who gave other reasons for preferring another candidate. (28%).
*Ann Quinnipiac University poll in August Among registered Republican voters, 76% had a favorable view of Trump, and only 15% had an unfavorable view. Nearly three of his four (71%) said they hope Trump will run for president in his 2024 year, and 25% said they won’t.
*Ann August NBC News poll Among registered voters who are Republicans and lean toward the Republican Party, 41% consider themselves to be Trump supporters, and 50% say they are Republican supporters.

What to do with all these numbers? Well, two main things:

1) Trump remains the dominant force within the Republican Party and is very popular among ordinary Republicans.

2) About a quarter of Republicans do No We hope Trump will run again in 2024.

Given that, it’s safe to say that about one in four Republican voters is a non-MAGA Republican, whether they identify themselves as such or not.

This is interesting!

But don’t assume that the 25% of Republicans not in MAGA will definitely endorse Biden and the Democrats this fall or in 2024. big The difference between Trump saying he doesn’t want to run for president again in 2024 and deciding to cross party lines to endorse Democrats running for House or Senate this November.

Democrats, on the other hand, don’t need 1 in 4 Republicans to cross party lines to vote Democrats in the 2022 election. If even her 10% of that group could do so, it would be enough to make a difference not only in some of these battleground states and constituencies, but also in the broader battles for majorities in the House and Senate. likely to be equivalent to a large number of votes.


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