Trump appears in headlines again, could cost Republicans in midterm elections

But history is only a guiding force. There are not always parallels with what is happening now.

We have a duly elected president this year Joe BidenHowever, there are also ex-presidents. donald trumpHis residence was raided by the FBI and he continues to falsely claim that the election he lost for his next term was rigged.

This extraordinary situation is about to start turning to political week as we try to figure out what happens to presidential penalties when two presidents are in the spotlight.

Who who read my work on the midterm elections You know how skeptical I was about the chances of a Democrat in November. But sometimes you have to look at the facts on the ground and realize that things aren’t what you thought they were.
Democrats have support in their bid maintain the US Senate And House, and Trump probably has a lot to do with it – canceling the regular intermediate penalties with his own intermediate penalties.
Current, general parliamentary vote basically equal. If anything, Democrats lead by just under a point on average. Earlier this summer, the Republicans had a roughly 3-point advantage.
Many things happened that could have caused this political shift. Overthrowing the Roe v. Wade Case When falling gas prices.
But looking at people’s online search interests, it’s easy to see that Trump is also playing a big role.Biden and Trump basically evenly executed The number of people who searched for both men on Google earlier this year. However, in the last 90 days, Trump has gotten just under 60% of searches for him or Biden. In the last 30 days, over 60% of such searches were for Trump.
It’s hard to imagine a former president being searched by more people than the current president in any other situation. playing cards When barack obama At this point in their presidency, they were approaching 90% of all search traffic between them and their predecessors.
of correlation The difference between Trump’s percentage of searches compared to Biden on the 14-day moving average and the Democrats’ margin in the popular vote since the beginning of the year is as high as 0.7 (on a scale of -1 to +1). This is a statistically significant relationship.

In other words, the more Trump is on people’s minds, the better the Democrats are doing.

Of course, this is not what Republicans want.Here he is Biden’s popularity rises in a month (more on that later), but he not very popular yetPresidents with less than 45% approval ratings their party tends to lose a lot of seats in parliament.
But Trump is even more unpopular than Biden. His net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) in Wall Street Journal poll Last week’s out was -19 points, significantly worse than Biden’s -8 points.

And while you might think that a negative view of Biden would stage a negative view of Trump, given who the current president is, that might not be the case.

take the latest NBC News pollWhen asked whether their votes for Congress were meant to show support for Biden or Trump, voters split 44% and 44%. played an equal role in voting.

What this means is that Democrats cannot possibly lose many seats this time. Most projections in the House keep the loss below her 20 seats. They are favored (albeit marginally) to keep the Senate.

Given what usually happens in midterm elections, it’s a result that Democrats should be happy to accept.

Biden gains popularity

While Trump dominates the news, the current presidency has seen something unusual happen to his approval ratings, which rise as the midterm elections approach. doing.

4 Trends: Democrats Are Doing Much Better in Special Elections Since Roe Overturned
Biden’s approval rating recently jumped 9 points from 31% to 40% Quinnipiac University PollThe president’s ratings on average aren’t all that low, and his jump probably isn’t as high as nine points, but polls are part of the trend.

Biden’s approval rating averages about 42% in polls. That’s up from about 37% in his last 10 days in July. Since then, Biden’s approval ratings have risen by basically one point a week.

To clarify, his approval rating remain at the bottom Where, historically, are presidents at this point in their first term?

But history is something Biden’s presidency hasn’t quite followed.

Now, an argument could be made that Biden had no choice but to go up, and that’s true to some extent.approval rating Tend to return to 50% (i.e. there is mean reversion).
However, Biden has also done some popular things.a a clear majority of voters Approval of Health Care and Climate Change Bill that he signed the law.they recognize him student loan cancellation what he did.

Moreover, Biden did not simply win back voters from within his base. Yes, his approval rating among Democrats has risen by about 6 percentage points on average in the polls.

This is why Democrats running for governor and Senate in Pennsylvania I want to go out in public with BidenHe has a high approval rating among Democrats and is less hostile to independents than he used to be.

Of course, we’ll know in a few months how good the strategy will end up being. Even if Biden’s approval rating has increased, it is still not high. If Democrats end up losing control of both the House and Senate in November, they may regret supporting the president.

For your short encounter: when is autumn?

It seems like an easy question to ask when does fall start? But just like what we call the seasons after summer and before winter (i.e. fall or fall), there are multiple answers.

In fact, it can be argued that the 3rd is the first day of autumn. Meteorological autumn begins on September 1st. Many people think of Labor Day on September 5th this year as the end of summer. There will be an astronomical equinox on September 22nd this year as well.

So when does autumn start? CBS News poll A 2017 survey found that 67% of Americans said Labor Day best describes the end of summer for them. When asked to choose between the two days, just 27% said equinox.

I oppose grain and offer an unpolled answer.Fall started at the beginning of the month on Thursday.

the rest of the data

Satisfaction with the education system depends on how and who you ask: Only 42% of Americans are satisfied with the state of America’s K-12 education system. According to GallupThis is the lowest number at any point in the 21st century. Her 80% of parents with K-12 children are satisfied with the quality of their eldest daughter’s education.
Climate change is seen as the world’s greatest threat: A recent report found that the majority of people (median 75% in 19 countries) see global climate change as a major threat to their countries. Pew Research Center researchThe next closest major threat by scale was the spread of online disinformation, at 70%.
Emphasis on feeling safe online rather than speaking freely: A majority (62%) of teens say feeling safe online is more important than being able to speak freely. poll found. Of her adults, 50% think it’s more important to feel safe than to speak freely, and 47% think it’s more important to speak freely. Young adults (18 to her 29) were most likely to say that speaking freely was more important (57%). Only 38% of adults 65 and older thought free speech was more important.


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