Will Joe Biden face major challenges in 2024?

“Joe Biden is running for reelection. I will be his ticket mate.” Harris told CNN Earlier this week. “End” (She later modified her remark to say that Biden was “intended” to run.)

Even if you do that, there is at least another question worth asking. Will Biden face major challenges?

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Now, before moving on, it is important here to distinguish between the major and credible major challenges to Biden and someone who has decided to run the problem (or himself) to the limelight of the national media. is.

The latter is relatively likely-a kind of shoelace candidate that never really threatens Biden or even gets his attention in a meaningful way.

Despite Pritzker’s comments, the former is more rare.

The Democratic president was seriously challenged to nominate the party in a re-election bid in 1980 when incumbent Jimmy Earl Carter had to deal with a complaint from Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. It was just.

Carter won the primary slightly, but the damage done by it had a considerable impact on his explosive loss in the general election to Ronald Reagan.

Yes, there is a comparison between Carter and Biden-at least at this stage of his presidency. Both men used economic stimuli to help lower unemployment and resume a slumping economy. And both had to deal with the resulting inflation. Neither man was terribly popular with ordinary voters (or Biden’s). And their liberal party bases weren’t (and weren’t) looking at them.

But there is a reason why more than 40 years have passed since the Democratic president (or in fact any president) faced a serious major challenge. Incumbents are particularly powerful in an era of billion-dollar campaigns and non-stop political activity.

Defeating the incumbent is very difficult-even damaged ones like Carter and Biden.

That said, Pritzker represents a unique challenge for Biden if he decides to run. His family owns the Hyatt Hotel Chain, and his estimated net worth is well over $ 3 billion. So if Pritzker wants to play against Biden in 2024, he won’t lose due to lack of funds.

point: History suggests that a serious major challenge to Biden is unlikely. But it’s not impossible.